Introduction

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces annual estimates of the resident population of each local authority within England & Wales as of the 30th of June each year. These estimates are known as the ‘Mid-Year Estimates’.

Every two years the Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces long-term population projections for local authorities in England; known as the ‘Subnational Population Projections (SNPPs)’. The SNPPs project what the population of each local authority might look like over the next 25 years if recent demographic trends continue.

While the SNPPs provide a useful baseline scenario, they do not offer the flexibility to make alternative assumptions about what might happen in the future, for example: the implications of local planning developments; growth of the local economy; or, longer term trends in migration rates. These local factors can make a real difference to what populations might look like in the long-term. We use the ‘Popgroup Demographic Forecasting Software’ to create our own ‘in-house’ projection scenarios which incorporate various local assumptions.

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