COVID-19 Risk Assessment
On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organisation (WHO) was informed of a cluster of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause detected in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. A novel coronavirus (SARS coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)) was subsequently identified from patient samples. On the 11th March 2020, the outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) spread across Cumbria and an emergency was declared.
Information is provided in the following sections to help individuals and organisations understand and assess risks posed by the COVID-19 virus. This information is not exhaustive but aims to provide a snapshot of the situation across Cumbria’s districts. If you have any suggestions around how this page could be improved, please contact the Multi Agency Information Cell by emailing MAIC@cumbria.gov.uk
COVID-19 Infections – Count and Rate
Full time series charts of lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 covering all previous weeks for Cumbria and the county’s districts can be seen below.
The current number and rate of total lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases by district can also be viewed via the gov.uk COVID-19 Dashboard. The site has an interactive map that can be used to show comparisons between lower tier and upper tier local authorities, regions and nations within the UK.
COVID-19 Mortality – Count and Rate
The number of deaths across Cumbria and the county’s districts that were registered with COVID-19 as the cause of death can be seen below by week and place of occurence.
Provisional counts of the number of deaths and age-standardised mortality rates involving COVID-19 across Cumbria’s districts compared to the North West and England and Wales can be seen here:
COVID-19 Regional R Value
The Reproductive Value, often referred to as the “R Value” describes how many more people, on average, will be infected for every one person who has COVID-19. Where the R Value is below 1, the disease will eventually peter out, as not enough new people are being infected to maintain the outbreak. However, if the R Value is above 1, then the number of cases can start to increase. The link below shows the current estimated median R Value, by region.
Office for National Statistics (ONS) Risk Factors:
ONS analysis has reported the following risk factors relating to COVID-19:
- Age & Sex: Up to 8 May 2020, there were 37,375 deaths registered in England and Wales involving COVID-19 (21,145 men and 16,230 women). The majority of deaths involving COVID-19 have been among people aged 65 years and over (33,098 out of 37,375), with 46% (15,079) of these occurring in the over-85 age group.
- Deprivation: The age-standardised mortality rate of deaths involving COVID-19 in the most deprived areas of England was 55.1 deaths per 100,000 population compared with 25.3 deaths per 100,000 population in the least deprived areas.
- Occupation: Compared with the rate among people of the same sex and age in England and Wales, men working in the lowest skilled occupations had the highest rate of death involving COVID-19, with 21.4 deaths per 100,000 males (225 deaths). Men and women working in social care, a group including care workers and home carers, both had significantly raised rates of death involving COVID-19, with rates of 23.4 deaths per 100,000 males (45 deaths) and 9.6 deaths per 100,000 females (86 deaths). Men working as security guards had one of the highest rates, with 45.7 deaths per 100,000 (63 deaths). Among men, a number of other specific occupations were found to have raised rates of death involving COVID-19, including: taxi drivers and chauffeurs (36.4 deaths per 100,000); bus and coach drivers (26.4 deaths per 100,000); chefs (35.9 deaths per 100,000); and sales and retail assistants (19.8 deaths per 100,000).
- Ethnic Group: Provisional analysis has shown that the risk of death involving COVID-19 among some ethnic groups is significantly higher than that of those of White ethnicity. When taking into account age in the analysis, Black males are 4.2 times more likely to die from a COVID-19-related death and Black females are 4.3 times more likely than White ethnicity males and females. People of Bangladeshi and Pakistani, Indian, and Mixed ethnicities also had statistically significant raised risk of death involving COVID-19 compared with those of White ethnicity. While results show that the difference between ethnic groups in COVID-19 mortality is partly a result of socio-economic disadvantage and other circumstances, a remaining part of the difference has not yet been explained.
To view county and district profiles covering the above COVID-19 risk factors (age, sex, deprivation, occupation and ethnicity) please visit the following pages:
To view more detailed information about the age, sex, deprivation, occupation and ethnicity profiles of Cumbria and the county’s districts, electoral divisions, wards and LSOAs, please click on the following links:
- Cumbria Population Profiles
- Cumbria Population Maps
- Cumbria Deprivation Profiles
- Cumbria Deprivation Maps
- Cumbria Economy & Employment Profiles
- Cumbria Economy & Employment Maps
“Disparities in the risk and outcomes of COVID-19” published by Public Health England confirms that the impact of COVID-19 has replicated existing health inequalities and, in some cases, has increased them. The report shows that of people already diagnosed with COVID-19 people aged 80 or older were seventy times more likely to die than those under 40. Risk of dying was also higher in males than females; higher in those living in the more deprived areas than those living in the least deprived; and higher in those in Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) groups than in White ethnic groups. The full report can be accessed via the link below.
The Equality and Human Rights Commission recognises that people who share certain protected characteristics are disproportionately adversely impacted by COVID-19 and the measures being taken to respond to it, in particular: disabled people, older people, some ethnic minorities and some women. The full report and executive summary can be accessed within the May 2020 consultation responses section via the link below.
Children & Schools
Data relating to the number of children and young people with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities, Special Educational Needs, Education Health and Care Plans, and children known to Social Care and with a Child Protection Plan are provided in the table here.
- ONS: COVID-19: All Publications
- ONS: Deaths Involving COVID-19 by Local Area & Deprivation: Publication
- ONS: COVID-19 Related Deaths by Occupation: Publication
- ONS: COVID-19 Related Deaths by Ethnic Group: Publication
Key Data Sources
- Cumbria: COVID-19 Risk Factors: Profile
- Cumbria’s Districts: COVID-19 Risk Factors: Profile
- Gov.uk: COVID-19 Dashboard
- ONS: COVID-19: All Datasets
- ONS: Deaths Involving COVID-19 by Local Area & Deprivation: Dataset
- ONS: COVID-19 Related Deaths by Occupation: Dataset
- ONS: COVID-19 Related Deaths by Ethnic Group: Dataset
- Cumbria Observatory: ICC Profiles
- PHE: Fingertips Public Health Profiles
- PHE: Local Health Profiles
- Cumbria County Council COVID-19 Advice & Information
- ONS: COVID-19: All Analysis
- ONS: COVID-19: Analysis Roundup